Viewing archive of Friday, 23 March 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Newly numbered Region 1445 (S24E76) rotated onto the solar disk and produced an M1 flare at 23/1940Z as well as a C6 flare at 23/1639Z. Region 1444 (N21E37) was numbered overnight, but is small and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate, mainly due to additional activity from Region 1445.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially unsettled, but decreased to quiet levels after 23/0300Z. The elevated activity was caused by a solar sector boundary crossing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (24-26 March).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Mar 105
  Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar  110/115/120
  90 Day Mean        23 Mar 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Mar  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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