Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 March 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1434 (S20W40) produced
a single C1/Sn flare at 17/0237Z and ended the period as a Dso type
group with beta magnetic characteristics. Region 1435 (S25W50) grew
larger and more magnetically complex, ending as a Dao type group
with beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. A non-Earth-directed CME
was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 18/0024Z and believed to
originate from old Region 1429 (N19, L=295).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare from Regions 1434 or 1435.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The
coronal hole high speed stream abated over the course of the day.
Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft began declining from 650 km/s
at 17/2300Z to end the period near 500 km/s. Bt decreased and Bz was
neutral to slightly negative. With the departure of the high speed
stream, the geomagnetic field activity decreased from active to
quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels as a CME from 15 March
arrives early in the period on Day 1 (19 March). There is a slight
chance for minor storm levels. Activity levels are expected to
decline to unsettled on Day 2 (20 March) and quiet by Day 3 (21
March) as the effects from the CME subside.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Mar 102 Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 015/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 015/020-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar to 21 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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