Viewing archive of Friday, 16 March 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1432 (N14W25) produced three C1/Sf flares during the period. This region decreased in area and spot count, ending the day as a Eso type group with a beta-gamma configuration. New Region 1436 (S12E62), a simple Axx type group, was numbered today. SDO/AIA 171 imagery showed a filament erupted from the northwest limb around 18Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for another M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to active levels as effects from yesterdays CME impact began to wane. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft remained high, averaging about 660 km/s through the period while Bz ranged from +5 to -5 nT. Data suggests we may already be under the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to begin at unsettled to active levels with minor to major storm periods at high latitudes for Day 1 (17 Mar). Days 2 and 3 (18-19 Mar) will see a return to predominantly active levels with minor storm periods possible as an earth-directed CME from 15 Mar arrives mid to late on the 18th. A glancing blow from a 14 Mar CME is expected to precede the CME by about 12 hours. Major to severe storm levels will be possible at high latitudes. The geomagnetic field should return to active to unsettled levels late on Day 3 (19 Mar) as effects begin to wane.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton20%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Mar 099
  Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar  105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        16 Mar 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  024/038
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Mar  014/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  013/015-018/025-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%40%30%
Minor storm05%20%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%25%15%

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