Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 March 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1432 (N14E03) produced an M2/1N event at 14/1521Z associated with a faint CME as visible on LASCO C2 (plane-of-sky velocity 392 km/s) with a narrow northeast trajectory. As of current, this CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare until Region 1429 (N19W77) rotates behind the limb. On days 2 and 3 (16-17 March) activity is expected to decrease to low levels with a chance for moderate flaring from Region 1432.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels reaching active levels at high latitudes. Correction to yesterdays summary, the greater than 100 MeV event began at 13/1810Z, reached a peak value of 1 PFU at 13/1905Z, and ended at 13/2255Z. The 10 MeV proton event greater than 100 PFU (S2-Moderate) event began at 13/1855Z, reached a peak value of 469 PFU at 13/2045Z, and dropped below 100 PFU into S1-Minor threshold at 14/0955Z. The proton event is currently around 33 PFU and gradually decreasing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 15 March. Activity is expected to increase to active levels on 16 March due to effects from the 13 March transient and a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Activity is expected to return to mostly unsettled levels on 17 March as effects from these two influences begin to wane slightly. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue to decrease over the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
Class M 70%40%40%
Class X 20%05%05%
Proton90%40%70%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Mar 119
  Predicted    15 Mar-17 Mar  115/110/105
  90 Day Mean        14 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Mar  006/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  009/015-015/020-018/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm 05%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm 15%30%20%
Major-severe storm 05%35%20%

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