Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 March 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1429 (N18W62) produced a long duration M7 flare at 13/1741Z associated with Type II and IV radio sweeps (estimated velocity 1366 km/s), a 1400 sfu Tenflare, and an assymetric-halo CME (plane-of-sky velocity 1375 km/s) with a mostly northwest trajectory. The geoeffectiveness of this CME is currently under evaluation.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare until Region 1429 rotates off the visible disk on 15 March. Day 3 (16 March) solar activity is expected to decrease to low levels with a slight chance for isolated moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV and greater than 100 MeV protons became rapidly enhanced just after the M7 flare with associated CME. The greater than 10 MeV event began at 13/1810Z, reached a maximum flux of 469 PFU at 13/2045Z and is decreasing. The greater than 100 MeV event also began at 13/1810Z, reached a maximum flux of 18.9 PFU and is also decreasing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 and 15 March). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled conditions on day 3 (16 March) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
Class M 70%70%20%
Class X 20%20%01%
Proton99%90%80%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Mar 141
  Predicted    14 Mar-16 Mar  140/140/135
  90 Day Mean        13 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  028/037
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Mar  010/011
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 01%01%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%20%15%
Major-severe storm 10%10%10%

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