Viewing archive of Monday, 12 March 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1430 (N22W67) produced a C2 flare at 12/0155Z. Previously active Region 1429 (N18W50) is now an Ekc type spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate levels. A slight chance for an isolated X-class flare remains possible from Region 1429.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels with isolated periods of severe storm levels at high latitudes. The ACE spacecraft observed a sudden storm commencement at 12/0843Z with wind speeds escalating from 445 to 560 km/s. Total field strength reached a peak of 28nT and Bz dropped as low as -21nT. A sudden impulse was observed at 12/0921Z (96nT, as measured by the Boulder magnetometer). Solar wind speeds reached up to 775 km/s during the event. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit remains near 10 pfu as of forecast issue. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (13 March) due to CME effects. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day two (14 March) as CME effects subside. Day three (15 March) the geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton60%40%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Mar 115
  Predicted    13 Mar-15 Mar  115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        12 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  010/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Mar  021/030
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  035/065-015/025-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%05%
Minor storm 35%15%01%
Major-severe storm 20%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm 20%25%15%
Major-severe storm 65%40%05%

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