Viewing archive of Monday, 12 March 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1430 (N22W67) produced
a C2 flare at 12/0155Z. Previously active Region 1429 (N18W50) is
now an Ekc type spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate levels. A slight chance for an isolated
X-class flare remains possible from Region 1429.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels with
isolated periods of severe storm levels at high latitudes. The ACE
spacecraft observed a sudden storm commencement at 12/0843Z with
wind speeds escalating from 445 to 560 km/s. Total field strength
reached a peak of 28nT and Bz dropped as low as -21nT. A sudden
impulse was observed at 12/0921Z (96nT, as measured by the Boulder
magnetometer). Solar wind speeds reached up to 775 km/s during the
event. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit
remains near 10 pfu as of forecast issue. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (13 March)
due to CME effects. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on
day two (14 March) as CME effects subside. Day three (15 March) the
geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 60% | 40% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 115 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 021/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 035/065-015/025-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 15% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 40% | 05% |
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