Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 March 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A C7/Sf flare was observed from Region 1428 (S17W19). Region 1429 (N17E01) remains a large Ekc spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification. Possible separation was observed within the intermediate area of the spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low to moderate levels with a chance for further X-class activity from Region 1429 for the next three days (09 - 11 March).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions with major storm periods observed at high latitudes during 08/1200 - 1800Z. At 08/1045Z, a 40 nT shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft from the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the X5 flare that occurred early on 07 March. A sudden impulse was observed shortly after at the Boulder magnetometer at 08/1105Z (59 nT). Minor storm periods were observed as a result of the CME arrival. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 07/0510Z increased to a maximum of 6530 pfu at 08/1115Z as a result of the CME shock. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 07/0405Z, and reached a maximum value of 69.3 pfu at 07/1525Z, has slowly declined.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor to major storm periods possible on day 1 (09 March) as the Earth continues to be under the influence of the CME from 07 March. Quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods possible are expected for days 2 - 3 (10 - 11 March).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
Class M80%80%80%
Class X40%40%40%
Proton99%99%70%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Mar 140
  Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar  140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        08 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  033/064
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Mar  018/027
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  017/027-007/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%15%
Minor storm25%05%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%10%10%

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