Viewing archive of Friday, 2 March 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity reached moderate levels today. An M3/Sf
flare was observed off the NE limb at 02/1746Z near N16. As the
region rotates on the visible disk, a more detailed analysis of its
complexity can be determined. STEREO B EUVI 195 imagery indicated a
possible CME associated with the event beginning at 02/1746Z,
however, further imagery from SOHO/LASCO will be needed to confirm.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with M-class activity likely from the new region rotating onto the
NE limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with an isolated minor
storm period observed at high latitudes during the period 02/1200 -
1500Z. Activity was due to sustained periods of southward Bz of the
interplanetary magnetic field coupled with an elevated solar wind
speed around 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled conditions on day 1 (03
March). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 2 (04 March).
A recurrent coronal high speed stream is expected increase
conditions to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (05 March).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 108 Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 02 Mar 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 012/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 008/008-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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