Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 February 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There were two B-class
flares during the last 24 hours. The largest of these was a B5 at
1937Z from Region 1422 (N15W38). Region 1422 has shown steady decay
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a chance, however, for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak
shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 22/0120Z and was
followed by a sudden impulse of 20 nT at 22/0223Z at the Boulder
magnetometer. Somewhat later in the day a solar sector boundary
crossing was observed (22/0815Z) and was followed by a marked
increase in solar wind velocity, indicative of the onset of a high
speed stream from a coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods during the next 24 hours as effects from the high speed
stream persist. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the
second and third days (24-25 February).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 104 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 007/008-007/005-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
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