Viewing archive of Friday, 17 February 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1418 (S23W55) redeveloped spots as a B-type group. The remaining regions were quiet and stable. Two filament eruptions were observed during the period. The first eruption was a 9 degree long filament centered near N26E41 that lifted off at about 17/0130Z. The second eruption was a 16 degree long filament centered near S33W17 that lifted off at about 17/0553Z. LASCO C2 imagery observed a very faint, slow-moving CME off the SSE limb first visible about 17/0745Z. This CME does not appear to have an Earth-directed component.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (18 - 20 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE solar wind velocities decreased during the period from about 350 km/s to near 300 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through most of day one (18 February). By late on day one and through day two (19 February), field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream effects. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected by day three (20 February).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Feb 104
  Predicted    18 Feb-20 Feb  105/100/110
  90 Day Mean        17 Feb 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Feb  002/002
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  007/008-008/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%15%
Minor storm 15%15%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%20%
Minor storm 20%20%05%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%

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