Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 February 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. The disk and limb were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (17 - 19 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. ACE solar wind velocities varied between 350 to 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly northward to +5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (17 February) through late on day two (18 February). Late on day two and through day three (19 February), field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels, due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Feb 103
  Predicted    17 Feb-19 Feb  105/105/100
  90 Day Mean        16 Feb 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  018/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Feb  004/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  006/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%30%30%
Minor storm 01%15%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%40%40%
Minor storm 01%20%20%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%

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