Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 February 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with the chance for C-class flares over the next 3 days (16-18 February) from Regions 1416 (S19W55) and 1419 (N29E29).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged between quiet and minor storm levels at mid latitudes during the period, while minor to major storm periods were observed predominately at high latitudes. The majority of the elevated activity was observed between 14/2200Z - 15/0600Z and was most likely caused by the slow arriving CME that was observed on 10 February.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active early on day one (16 February) as activity begins to wane. Conditions should be mostly quiet on day two (17 February), before increasing again on day three (18 February), when high speed stream effects are expected from a favorably positioned, negative polarity coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Feb 105
  Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb  105/110/110
  90 Day Mean        15 Feb 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Feb  017/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  010/010-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%10%20%
Minor storm10%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%10%40%
Minor storm30%01%20%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

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