Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 February 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with the chance for C-class flares over the next 3 days (16-18
February) from Regions 1416 (S19W55) and 1419 (N29E29).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged between quiet and minor storm levels at
mid latitudes during the period, while minor to major storm periods
were observed predominately at high latitudes. The majority of the
elevated activity was observed between 14/2200Z - 15/0600Z and was
most likely caused by the slow arriving CME that was observed on 10
February.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active early on day one (16 February) as
activity begins to wane. Conditions should be mostly quiet on day
two (17 February), before increasing again on day three (18
February), when high speed stream effects are expected from a
favorably positioned, negative polarity coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 105 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 017/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 010/010-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 01% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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