Viewing archive of Monday, 13 February 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with the chance for M-class flares over the next 3 days (14-16 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes and ranged between unsettled to minor storm levels at high latitudes. The activity was the result of a sub-storm as well as the onset of short lived coronal hole high speed stream effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to begin day 1 (14 February) at quiet to unsettled levels. Between 06Z and 12Z, an anticipated glancing blow from the CME on 11 February is expected at Earth, with a subsequent increase in geomagnetic activity. Primarily unsettled and active levels are forecast to persist throughout the day, with an isolated minor storm possible. Conditions on day 2 (15 February) should begin to subside, with quiet and unsettled levels expected during recovery from the transient. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (16 February).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Feb 108
  Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        13 Feb 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Feb  007/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  012/018-006/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%10%
Minor storm20%10%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%30%10%
Minor storm30%10%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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