Viewing archive of Friday, 10 February 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was low due to C-class x-ray events from Region 1415 (N08W84). Region 1416 (S17E10) continues to evolve developing a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1417 (N18E59) rotated onto the disk as a B-type group. As asymmetric, full-halo CME was observed lifting off the NE limb, first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 09/2117Z. The source region for this event appears to be located to the southwest of Region 1417. A second CME was observed in STEREO-A and B COR2 imagery, first seen on the Ahead spacecraft at 10/1154Z. The source of this CME appears to be a 23 degree long filament eruption, centered near S31E29. Analysis is ongoing on the geoeffective potential of these CMEs.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days (11 - 13 February) due to the return of old Region 1402 (N26, L=218).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE satellite solar wind velocities were steady through the period at about 450 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly north at about 5 nT with brief southward excursions to -4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (11 February) through midday on day two (12 February). By midday on day two, and through day three (13 February), field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with high latitude active intervals. This increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal high speed stream that is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
Class M 05%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Feb 111
  Predicted    11 Feb-13 Feb  115/120/120
  90 Day Mean        10 Feb 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Feb  004/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  004/005-006/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%30%30%
Minor storm 01%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%40%40%
Minor storm 05%20%20%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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