Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. As Regions 1401 (N16W66) and 1402 (N26W60) approached the west limb, they exhibited little change over the past 24 hours, as did the remainder of the disk and limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low during the period (26 - 28 January). A chance for M-class activity exists on 26 - 27 January from Regions 1401 and 1402 before they rotate around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with isolated high latitude major to severe storm intervals. During the period, ACE solar wind velocities varied between a high of 625 km/s at the beginning, and steadily decreased to a low of near 500 km/s by the end. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/- 10 nT through about 25/1000Z and remained weakly south at -1 to -5 nT through the end of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux event was still in progress at the time of this report. Proton flux levels steadily decayed to end the period near 100 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (26 January). By day two (27 January) and through day three (28 January), field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods. This increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream expected to move into a geoeffective position. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux event is expected to remain above event levels through 26 January, falling to background levels by 27 January.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
Class M25%10%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton50%01%01%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jan 126
  Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan  125/120/120
  90 Day Mean        25 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  013/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jan  011/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  005/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%25%25%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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