Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Low-level C-class events were observed from Region 1401 (N16W53) and Region 1402 (N29W48). Region 1401 indicated slight decay while Region 1402 showed some growth in the trailer spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (25 - 27 January) with M-class activity likely from Regions 1401 and 1402.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with isolated minor to major storm periods. At 24/1431Z, an interplanetary shock passage was recorded at the ACE satellite with a corresponding sudden impulse of 22 nT observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 24/1504Z. At the time of the IP shock passage, Bt reached a maximum of 37 nT at 24/1439Z while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field hit a maximum northward extent of 27 nT at 24/1436Z and a maximum southward extent of -16 nT at 24/1807Z. Wind velocity, as measured at the SOHO spacecraft, were observed at shock passage near 750 km/s with post shock passage speeds near 650 km/s. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux event that began at 23/0445Z, reached a maximum of 2 pfu at 23/0750Z and ended at 23/2050Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux event that began at 23/0530Z, reached a new maximum of 6310 pfu at 24/1530Z and was still in progress at the time of this writing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels, with isolated major storm intervals, on day one (25 January) as effects from the arrival of the 23 January CME persist. By day two (26 January), the field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels as CME effects wane. Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, are expected on day three (27 January) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux event is expected to remain above threshold through 26 January, falling to background levels by 27 January.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton99%99%50%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jan 136
  Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan  140/140/135
  90 Day Mean        24 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  007/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jan  022/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  018/020-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%10%25%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%15%35%
Minor storm25%05%15%
Major-severe storm10%01%05%

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