Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1401 (N16W26) and 1402
(N29W23) produced occasional C-class flares. The largest of these
was a C7 at 22/0257Z. Region 1401 showed gradual spot decay during
the period. Gradual trailer spot growth was observed in Region 1402.
No significant changes were observed in the remaining spotted
regions. No new regions were numbered. There was no Earth-directed
CME activity observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (23 - 25 January) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Region 1401 or Region 1402.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels
with brief major storm levels at high latitudes. An interplanetary
shock passed the ACE spacecraft at approximately 22/0514Z, likely
indicating the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. This
was followed by a geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) at 22/0614Z (31
nT, Boulder USGS magnetometer). Field activity increased to
unsettled to minor storm levels following the SI.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
levels on day 1 (23 January) as CME effects gradually subside. Quiet
conditions are expected during days 2 - 3 (24 - 25 January).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 141 Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 22 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 013/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 010/012-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 01% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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