Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1402 (N29E15)
produced an M3/2n flare at 19/1605Z associated with a Type IV radio
sweep and a full-halo CME (estimated plane-of-sky speed 1100 km/s).
Region 1402 showed minor spot growth in its trailer portion and was
classified as an Dko-type group with a beta magnetic configuration.
Region 1401 (N18E13) showed some spot and penumbral development in
its intermediate portion and was classified as an Eko-type with a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Weak Type II radio sweeps were
observed at 19/1252Z (estimated speed 933 km/s) and 19/1933Z
(estimated speed 694 km/s). No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (20 - 22 January) with a chance for M-class
activity from Regions 1401 and 1402.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (20 -
22 January) with a chance for active levels on 21 January due to the
expected arrival of todays CME.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 157 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 007/006-009/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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