Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. At 18/1912Z, an impulsive
M1/1n was observed from Region 1401 (N16E27). At 18/1230Z, Region
1399 (S23E17) produced a B9 x-ray event. A slow-moving,
partial-halo CME was seen lifting off the SSE limb, first observed
in LASCO C2 imagery at 18/1325Z. Model output indicated the
potential for Earth impact beginning late on 22 January. New Region
1407 (N17E13) emerged on the disk as a B-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately low levels with a chance for M-class activity for the
next three days (19 - 21 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind velocities, as
measured at the ACE satellite, steadily decreased during the past 24
hours from a high of about 450 km/s to a low of near 375 km/s by the
end of the period. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the majority of day
one (19 January). By late on 19 January, and through day two (20
January), the field is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
conditions, with isolated active periods. This increase in activity
is due to anticipated effects from a glancing blow as a result of
the 16 January CME. By day three (21 January), the field is
expected return to mostly quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 148 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 150/150/155 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 006/006-007/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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