Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 December 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1389 (S23E58) produced the largest event of the period, an M1/1F flare at 29/1350Z. Region 1398 continues to grow and evolve as it rotates around the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels for the next three days (30 December - 01 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, have shown an increase from 280 km/s to almost 450 km/s in the past 24 hours. Signatures in the solar wind indicate the possible arrivals of the forecasted CMEs, however the intensity was lower than expected.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (30 December) as the effects of the CMEs wane. Predominantly quiet levels are expected on day two (31 December). A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day three (01 January) as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Dec 147
  Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan  145/145/145
  90 Day Mean        29 Dec 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Dec  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  012/008-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%05%10%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%10%15%
Major-severe storm20%05%15%

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