Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 December 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare in the past
24 hours was a C3 at 17/2255Z from Region 1376 (N20W18). New Region
1381 (S18E19) was also responsible for low level activity. New
Region 1382 (S18E25) was also assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (19-21
December).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 128 Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 128/128/128 90 Day Mean 18 Dec 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 002/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 002/001 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 006/005-005/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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