Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 December 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There were two, low level C-class flares during the past 24 hours, both of which appeared to be from Region 1367 which is behind west limb. There was a marked decrease in activity and background levels after 0900Z as Region 1367s loop tops rotated completely out view. Region 1374 (S17W26) continues to be the largest group on the disk but was quiet and stable. A coronal mass ejection/erupting prominence was observed from the southwest limb at about 0736Z but is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Very low levels are expected to prevail but there is still a chance for isolated C-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Dec 126
  Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec  124/124/124
  90 Day Mean        15 Dec 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Dec  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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