Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 December 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels with only B-class activity observed. Two filament eruptions were observed during the period. A 40 degree long filament, centered near N25E25, was first observed erupting at about 11/0600Z. Shortly after, a 10 degree long filament, centered near N30W17, was first observed lifting off at about 11/0900Z. Stereo-A COR2 imagery observed a pair of CMEs off the NE limb at 11/0754Z and 11/1024Z as a result of the filament activity. At this time, neither of these CMEs are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity all three days of the period (12 - 14 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind velocities generally varied between 450 to 500 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels all three days of the period (12 - 14 December).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Dec 134
  Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec  135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        11 Dec 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Dec  006/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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