Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 December 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. A few low level C-class flares
occurred early in the period from a region not yet around the east
limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (9-11 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for days 1-2 (9-10 December) before increasing
to unsettled and active conditions on day 3 (11 December) due to a
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 145 Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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