Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 December 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1363 (S21E04) continues to grow in sunspot number and magnetic complexity (beta-gamma-delta). The largest event of the period was a C4 x-ray event at 04/1615Z from Region 1362 (N08W18). New region 1367 (S18E36) emerged on the disk early in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class x-ray events for the next three days (05-07 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the past 24 hours. An isolated period at minor storm levels was observed at high latitudes, due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days (05-07 December).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Dec 164
  Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec  165/170/165
  90 Day Mean        04 Dec 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Dec  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  006/005-004/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active02%02%02%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm00%00%00%
B. High Latitudes
Active14%14%14%
Minor storm09%09%09%
Major-severe storm03%03%03%

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