Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 December 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1363 (S22E16) has been the most active region on the disk, with multiple C-class events. Region 1363 also continues to grow in spot count, areal coverage, and magnetic complexity (beta-gamma). New Region 1366 (N17E65) was numbered early in the period as it rotated onto the visible disk. Multiple CMEs have been observed in the past 24 hours, but none appear to have any Earth directed components.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days (04-06 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Slightly elevated activity was observed at high latitudes, with an isolated period at minor storm levels, do to the arrival of a transient CME. Signatures from the ACE spacecraft indicated this transients arrival around 02/1800Z with a slight increase in the lower energy protons, an increase in solar wind speeds coupled with elevated solar wind density, and finally an increase in total IMF intensity around 8 nT. The Penticton 10 cm flux is estimated today at 160 sfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be a predominantly quiet levels for the next three days (04-06 December).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Dec 160
  Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec  165/165/160
  90 Day Mean        03 Dec 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Dec  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  005/005-005/005-003/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active01%01%01%
Minor storm00%00%00%
Major-severe storm00%00%00%
B. High Latitudes
Active13%13%13%
Minor storm08%07%07%
Major-severe storm02%01%01%

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