Viewing archive of Friday, 2 December 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1363 (S20E29) continues to show growth in magnetic
complexity, sunspot formation, and areal coverage. New Region 1365
(N20E13) was numbered today and classified as a beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class activity for the next three
days (03 - 05 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(03-05 December).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 157 Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 160/165/165 90 Day Mean 02 Dec 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 005/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 03% | 03% | 03% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 00% | 00% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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