Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 November 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was moderate due to two M-class flares
observed during the period. Region 1348 (N20W84) produced an M1/Sf
at 15/0912Z, while Region 1346 (S18E27) produced an M1/Sf at
15/1243Z. A 13 degree long filament, centered near S24W37, was
first observed lifting off in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at about 14/1940Z.
At 14/2036Z, LASCO C2 imagery observed a SW directed CME with a
plane-of-sky speed estimated at about 630 km/s. Initial analysis
indicates a potential Earth-directed component from this CME.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class activity through the period (16 -
18 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (16 - 17 November).
By day three (18 November), the field is expected to be at quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, in response to a
possible glancing blow from the CME observed late on 14 November.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 148 Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 150/145/150 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 003/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 007/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 004/005-004/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 06% | 06% | 33% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 11% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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