Viewing archive of Monday, 14 November 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Four new emerging flux regions were observed overnight, one of which emerged on the disk as Region 1348 (N20W70). Region 1348 was responsible for two C-flares overnight; the largest was a C5/Sf at 14/0930Z. Associated with this event was a Type II radio sweep with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of 610 km/sec. Possible decay was noted in the trailing spots of Regions 1339 (N19W89) and 1344 (S17W86) as they are rotating off of the west limb. There was growth noted in the trailing spots of Region 1341 (N09W35). A slight amount of consolidation was observed in Region 1347 (N07E28). The additional three new flux regions were assigned numbers 1349 (N15W02), 1350 (N26E67), and 1351 (S23E51). A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO C3 imagery at approximately 12/1906Z off of the east limb. The plane-of-sky velocity was calculated to be 638 km/sec. An additional CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery at 13/1930Z from the north limb. Neither CME is expected to become geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (15 - 17 November). There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Regions 1339, 1344 and new Region 1350.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (15 - 17 November).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
Class M20%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Nov 161
  Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov  155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        14 Nov 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  002/000
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Nov  002/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active06%06%06%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm00%00%00%
B. High Latitudes
Active16%16%16%
Minor storm17%17%17%
Major-severe storm08%08%08%

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