Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 November 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. Frequent low-level C-class
flares occurred, most of which were produced by Region 1344
(S18W73). Region 1344 showed little change during the period, but
analysis was hampered by limb proximity. The same was true of Region
1339 (N19W75) as it approached the west limb. Region 1341 (N10W22)
showed gradual spot development in its intermediate and trailer
portions and produced a single C-class flare. New Region 1347
(N07E55) emerged early in the period and appeared to be in a gradual
growth phase. It produced a single C-class flare. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (14 - 16 November). There will be a slight chance
for an isolated M-class flare until Regions 1339 and 1344 depart the
west limb early on 15 November.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (14 - 16
November).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| Class M | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 155 Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 03% | 01% | 02% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 14% | 13% | 14% |
| Minor storm | 09% | 08% | 08% |
| Major-severe storm | 04% | 02% | 03% |
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