Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 November 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1339 (N19E31) produced three M-class events during the past 24 hours, the largest of which was an M3/1F at 0335Z. The other two M flares were an M1 at 1121Z and another M1 at 2038Z. Region 1339 continues to be the dominant group on the disk but showed a slight decrease in area and magnetic complexity. Nonetheless the group is still large (about 1190 millionths) and still has at least two magnetic delta configurations. New Region 1340 (S09E61) was assigned and is a simple H-type sunspot group. White light imagery from SDO show two significant spot groups rotating around east limb at about 9 degrees north and 17 degrees north. These are assigned NOAA Region numbers 1341 and 1342 respectively. The proximity of these regions to the limb makes it difficult to assess their size and complexity at this time.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate but with a slight chance for major flare activity (M5 or higher). In addition, as Region 1339 rotates closer to central meridian there will also be a slight chance for a proton producing event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The proton enhancement that began on 04 October continued to show decreasing flux but was still slightly elevated above background levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
Class M70%70%70%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Nov 172
  Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov  175/175/175
  90 Day Mean        05 Nov 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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