Viewing archive of Monday, 31 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the period. A new
region that has not yet emerged around the east limb produced a pair
of M1 flares at 31/1508Z and 31/1808Z. A CME associated with the
first of the two events was visible in NASA SOHO LASCO C2 imagery as
well as on STEREO A, but appears not be a Earth directed trajectory.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to moderate
with M-class flares likely to reoccur over the next 3 days (1-3
November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the period as
waning CH HSS effects lingered.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (1-3 November).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 138 Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 140/145/145 90 Day Mean 31 Oct 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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