Viewing archive of Friday, 28 October 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Three C-flares occurred during the past 24 hours, one from Region 1333 (N15W02) and two from Region 1324 (N13W63). Region 1324 showed emergence of new flux during the past 24 hours. Region 1333s growth has slowed considerably and the region is currently a small D-type sunspot group with about 50 millionths in sunspot area. Region 1330 (N08W09) continues to be the largest group on the disk with about 450 millionths area and a beta-gamma magnetic classification, but did not produce any flares. A CME was noted from the northeast limb entering the LASCO C3 field of view around 1254Z on the 27th and was associated with a filament eruption and post eruptive loop arcade in the northeast quadrant. The CME appears to be moving too far north of the ecliptic to be geoeffective. An additional CME was observed off the southwest limb and entered the C3 field of view at 0218Z on the 28th. STEREO coronagraph observations clearly showed that this was a backsided event and therefore the event is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event with Regions 1330, 1324, and 1333 the most likely sources.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the first part of day one (29 October). An increase to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is expected beginning late on the 29th and continuing through the first and second days (30-31 October). The increase is expected due to a high speed stream from coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Oct 134
  Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct  135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        28 Oct 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Oct  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  007/008-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%25%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%35%35%
Minor storm05%25%25%
Major-severe storm01%15%15%

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