Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 October 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was low due to one C-class flare, a C2 that occurred at 1844Z. The source was attributed to new Region 1333 (N15E11) which emerged today on the disk as a small, D-type sunspot region. Region 1330 (N09E04) continues to be the largest group on the disk as a 500 millionths E-type group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration, but could only manage to produce a small B6 flare 0102Z. The remainder of the disk was generally quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low, with an additional isolated C-flare considered to be likely. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from either of Region 1330 or 1333.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally quiet for the first two days (29-29 October). An increase to unsettled levels is expected late on the 29th or early on the 30th due to high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. Unsettled levels are expected to continue through 30-31 October.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Oct 132
  Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct  130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        27 Oct 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Oct  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  007/007-007/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%25%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%35%
Minor storm05%05%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%16%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

23%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/03/23X1.1
Last M-flare2024/03/28M6.1
Last geomagnetic storm2024/03/25Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2024124.7 +1.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
12024M7.0
22001M6.17
32024M6.1
42000M4.46
52022M4.0
ApG
1200144G2
2200327G2
3199721G2
4201727G1
5200421G1
*since 1994

Social networks