Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1324 (N12W00) produced a
C2 X-ray flare at 23/1147Z as well as a few other optical subflares.
The region continues to slowly decay. New Region 1331 (N11W60)
emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare. Regions 1324
(N12W00) and 1330 (N08E60) are the most likely source of flare
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A greater than 10 MeV proton event
began at 23/1500Z. So far the observed peak flux was 13 pfu at
23/1535Z. The source of the event is believed to be yesterdays
long-duration M1 flare at 22/1110Z in Region 1314 (N29, L=053).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected be mostly quiet becoming quiet to unsettled with a chance
of active periods on 25 October. This activity is expected in
response to the arrival of a CME that occurred at 22/0058Z in
association with an eruptive filament. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to end by 24 October.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 156 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 005/005-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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