Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 October 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1314 (N29W93) produced a long duration M1 flare at 22/1110Z associated with a CME off the west limb that is not expected to be geoeffective. A disappearing filament was observed at approximately 22/0058Z. An associated CME appears to be Earth-directed but further analysis is necessary to determine timing as images become available. New Region 1330 (N04E66) was numbered today and is considered a Dso-beta type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class activity likely for the next three days (23-25 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (23-25 October).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
Class M60%55%55%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Oct 164
  Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct  160/160/155
  90 Day Mean        22 Oct 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Oct  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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