Viewing archive of Friday, 21 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
Region 1319 (N12W79) produced an M1 at 21/1300Z associated with Type
II (estimated speed 789 km/s) and Type IV Radio Sweeps. Further
analysis will be conducted as imagery becomes available. The region
has grown in areal coverage and has shown intermediate spot
development. Region 1324 (N10E27) produced some C-class activity.
New Region 1329 (S30W42) was numbered today and is considered a
Cso-beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with M-class activity likely for the next three days (22-24
October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (22-24 October).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 168 Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 21 Oct 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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