Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
Old Region 1318 (N19, L=097) rotated around the west limb yesterday
but produced an M1 flare at 20/0325Z. Regions 1314 (N29W69) and 1324
(N11E40) both produced C-class activity. All other regions on the
disk remained relatively quiet and stable. New Regions 1326
(N16W36), 1327 (S22E10), and 1328 (N18E23) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (21-23 October) with a chance for M-class
activity from Regions 1319 (N11W66) and 1324.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (21-23 October).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 159 Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 160/160/155 90 Day Mean 20 Oct 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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