Viewing archive of Monday, 17 October 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Occasional low-level C-class x-ray flares occurred during the period. Regions 1314 (N27W30) and 1319 (N10W26) showed minor intermediate and trailer spot development during the period. Regions 1314 and 1319 were classified as a Cso/beta and Eki/beta-gamma, respectively. New Regions 1323 (N23E52) and 1324 (N11E80) were numbered. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (18 - 20 October) with a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 1319.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels through the period (18 - 20 October).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Oct 153
  Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct  155/155/155
  90 Day Mean        17 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Oct  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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