Viewing archive of Monday, 17 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional low-level C-class
x-ray flares occurred during the period. Regions 1314 (N27W30) and
1319 (N10W26) showed minor intermediate and trailer spot development
during the period. Regions 1314 and 1319 were classified as a
Cso/beta and Eki/beta-gamma, respectively. New Regions 1323 (N23E52)
and 1324 (N11E80) were numbered. There were no Earth-directed CMEs
observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (18 - 20 October) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Region 1319.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (18 - 20 October).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 153 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 155/155/155 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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