Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 October 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1313 (S15W13) remains the most magnetically complex region, but has failed to produce any notable activity. Early in the period, two new regions rotated onto the visible disk, around the southeast limb, and were numbered as Region 1316 (S12E56) and Region 1317 (S26E68).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the next three days (12-14 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft did show an increase from 320 km/s to around 410 km/s during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (12-14 October).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Oct 130
  Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        11 Oct 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Oct  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%11%

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