Viewing archive of Monday, 10 October 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1313 (S15E01) was the most active region, producing multiple low level C-class events. New Region 1315 (N20E08) was numbered early in the period and is current magnetically classified as a beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a slight chance for M-class events, for the next three days (11-13 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for an isolated active period on day one (11 October), as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. Predominantly quiet levels are expected on days two and three (12-13 October) as effects from the high speed stream wane.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Oct 126
  Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct  125/125/120
  90 Day Mean        10 Oct 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  008/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Oct  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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