Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 October 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. New Region 1314 (N26E72) was numbered today and produced a C1 flare at 09/1327Z. Region 1309 (N23W24) decayed slightly and is now considered an Hsx-alpha type group. All other regions on the disk remained relatively stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain low for the next three days (10-12 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled with an isolated active period from 09/0300-0600Z due to solar sector boundary changes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated active periods on day one (10 October) due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on days two and three (11-12 October) as effects from the CH HSS subside.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Oct 121
  Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct  120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        09 Oct 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Oct  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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