Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1309 (N22W11) produced
the lone C-class event at 08/0420Z. All of the regions on the disk
remained relatively stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (09-11 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (09-10
October) due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (11 October)
as the effects from the CH HSS subside.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 118 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 010/012-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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