Viewing archive of Friday, 7 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1313 (S16E39) produced a
C1/Sf at 07/0121Z. Region 1305 (N11W91) continued to produce C-class
activity as it rotated around the west limb. All of the other
regions on the disk remained relatively stable during the past 24
hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for moderate activity for the next three days
(08-10 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (08 October). Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (09-10
October) due to effects from a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 122 Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 005/005-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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