Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 September 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Sep 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was low. A spot group complex consisting
of Regions 1295 (N23W35), 1296 (N27W16) and 1298 (N15W36) produced
several C-class events in the past 24 hours, including a C9/1f flare
at 20/0513Z. SOHO LASCO imagery observed 4 CMEs again this period,
none of which are expected to be geoeffective. Region 1295 remains a
beta gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (21-23 September). A chance for isolated
M-class flares exists from the Region 1295 complex.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated active period
from 20/0300-0600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (21-23
September).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Sep 144 Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 20 Sep 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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