Viewing archive of Monday, 19 September 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Sep 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1296 (N26W05) produced a long duration C6 flare at 19/0737Z. Region 1301 (N20E63) produced a C6/Sn flare at 19/1541Z. SOHO LASCO imagery observed 4 CME limb events in the past 24 hours, none of which are expected to be geoeffective. Region 1295 remains a beta gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days (20-22 September). A chance for isolated M-class flares exists from Region 1295.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (20-22 September).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
Class M40%40%40%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Sep 141
  Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep  140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        19 Sep 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Sep  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm09%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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