Viewing archive of Friday, 16 September 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Sep 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity remained low. Frequent C-class flares were observed during the period. The largest was a C9/Sf at 16/1136Z from Region 1290 (S13W69). Region 1299 (S21E10) was numbered as a Cro-beta group with 8 spots today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class flares during the period (17-19 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor storm levels at high latitudes, on day one (17 September), due to the effects of the full halo CME observed at 14/0000Z. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to active levels on day two (18 September). Predominantly quiet levels are expected on day three (19 September).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
Class M35%35%35%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Sep 143
  Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep  142/140/140
  90 Day Mean        16 Sep 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Sep  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  018/020-010/015-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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