Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 September 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity remained low. Seven C-class flares were observed during the period. The largest was a C9/1f flare observed at 14/2051Z from Region 1297 (S16W52). A full halo CME was observed from SOHO NASA LASCO C2 images at 14/0000Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 428 km/s. The source of the CME was an eruption in the vicinity of Region 1289 (N24W25).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class flares for the period (15-17 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the period (15-17 September). The CME is expected to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Sep 143
  Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep  145/145/145
  90 Day Mean        14 Sep 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  011/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Sep  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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