Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 August 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Aug 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest event in the last 24 hours was a C1/Sf event that originated from Region 1271 (N17W42) at 24/1633Z. This region has shown separation and penumbral decay in its intermediate spots. A back-sided, partial halo CME was observed at 24/0027Z. All other numbered regions on the disk showed various amounts of decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for an M-class event from Region 1271 for the next three days (25-27 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (25-26 August). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled on day three (27 August) due to a recurring coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Aug 104
  Predicted   25 Aug-27 Aug  110/110/115
  90 Day Mean        24 Aug 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Aug  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug  005/005-005/005-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%30%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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