Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 August 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Aug 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The largest event in the last 24 hours was a B5 event that originated from Region 1271 (N17W29) at 23/0125Z. This region has shown separation and decayed penumbra in its trailer spots. It is now classified as a Eki spot group with a Beta magnetic configuration. Regions 1272 (S21W20), 1274 (N19E30) and 1275 (N08E39) showed various amounts of decay. New Region 1276 (N20E48) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for an M-class event from Region 1271 for the next three days (24-26 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (24-26 August).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Aug 104
  Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug  105/110/110
  90 Day Mean        23 Aug 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Aug  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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